Retail spending in the United States posted solid gains in October, offering a positive signal for the upcoming holiday shopping season, according to the latest data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and its monthly retail sales index.
Monthly and year-on-year performance
The Retail Monitor report, compiled by the NRF in partnership with Affinity Solutions and published on 10 November 2025, shows that total retail sales (excluding automotive dealers and gasoline stations) rose by 0.6 % in October compared with September (seasonally adjusted), and increased by 5.0 % compared with October 2024 (unadjusted).
When excluding restaurants in addition to automotive and fuel sectors (the “core” retail measure), sales also rose 0.6 % month-on-month and 4.89 % year-on-year.
For the first ten months of 2025, total retail sales are up 5.11 % and core retail sales up 5.28 %.
Sector trends and retail categories
Most retail categories showed growth in October. Digital products (such as e-books and games) posted the largest annual gain of 22.39 %. Clothing and accessories stores rose by 1.42 % month-on-month and 7.89 % year-on-year.
Sporting goods, hobbies, music and book stores increased by 0.09 % month-on-month and 7.19 % year-on-year. General merchandise rose 0.58 % month-on-month and 6.99 % year-on-year.
Electronics and appliance stores added 0.13 % month-on-month and 6.58 % year-on-year. Grocery and beverage stores grew 0.59 % month-on-month and 4.08 % year-on-year. Health and personal care achieved a modest 1.9 % year-on-year rise.
However, furniture and home furnishings were down 1.7 % year-on-year, and building and garden supply stores declined 8.52 % year-on-year.
The use of anonymised credit and debit card transaction data by the Retail Monitor underscores the immediacy and breadth of insight compared to survey-based measures.
Implications for the holiday shopping season
The October rebound bolsters the outlook for the holiday shopping season.
The NRF forecasts that U.S. holiday retail sales (November 1 to December 31) will increase by between 3.7 % and 4.2 % compared with the same period in 2024, translating to just over US$1 tn in spending.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay commented that wage growth outpacing inflation, low unemployment and wealth effects from strong stock-market valuations underpin the sustained consumer spending momentum.
For global retail sector stakeholders, these figures imply a cautiously optimistic backdrop: while growth may be moderating compared with the post-pandemic surge, the stability of consumer spending ahead of the peak shopping period remains a positive indicator.
In sum, the latest retail sales data suggest the retail market is entering the holiday season with momentum, offering a firmer platform for retailers and supply-chain partners to plan for increased consumer demand and seasonal activity.
