US cargo imports are expected to remain under strain in 2026 as tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty continue to affect shipments at the country’s main ports, according to a report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Although tariffs on some foods have been reduced, the fate of other International Emergency Economic Powers Act duties is unclear amid an ongoing legal challenge before the US Supreme Court, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report.
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Even if these measures are overturned, the administration is likely to attempt reinstatement using other trade authorities.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said that the impact of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to subside in the near term.
Ports monitored by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.07 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in October 2025, excluding figures from the Port of Charleston, which were not available at the time.
This marked a decline of 1.8% from September and a fall of 7.9% compared with the same month of 2024.
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By GlobalDataNovember volumes are projected at 1.91 million TEU, an annual decrease of 11.6%, while December is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 12.7% year-on-year.
After reaching a peak of 2.39 million TEU in July 2025, November and December are expected to be the weakest months of the year.
December is set to be the slowest month since June 2023, when volumes were recorded at 1.83 million TEU.
Although the final two months of the year are typically quieter, the steep annual declines partly reflect higher import levels in late 2024, driven by concerns over possible port strikes.
Retailers also advanced shipments earlier in the year in response to potential tariff increases.
Total container volumes for the first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEU, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.
Full-year volumes for 2025 are forecast at 25.2 million TEU, down from 25.5 million TEU in 2024, a decline of 1.4%.
January 2026 is forecast at 2 million TEU, indicating the first monthly rise in six months, though still 10.3% lower than a year earlier.
February volumes are expected at 1.86 million TEU, down 8.5%, followed by 1.79 million TEU in March, a fall of 16.8%, and 1.97 million TEU in April, down 10.9%.
The update comes as NRF projects US holiday sales to surpass $1tn for the first time in 2025, reflecting growth of between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.
Ben Hackett added: “We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year.
“Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
