The latest Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey has observed a deceleration in the decrease of sales volumes over the year leading up to April 2025, following a significant reduction in March.
During the month, retail sales volumes saw an 8% decrease – an improvement from the 41% downturn recorded in March.
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The trend represents the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year retail sales declines, with expectations pointing towards an accelerated contraction in May, when retailers anticipates a sharper drop in retail sales volumes next month – estimating 33%.
The assessment of sales relative to the season was deemed “poor” for April, albeit slightly better than the previous month.
The online retail segment displayed stability with a marginal 1% dip in sales volumes over the previous year and showing a notable recovery from the 27% decrease seen in March.
The CBI Distributive Trades Survey also revealed that wholesale sector performance continues to face challenges, with April witnessing one of the most substantial annual declines since September 2020, at 33%, down from 29% in March. Wholesalers anticipate a less severe drop in May, forecasting a 26% decrease.
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By GlobalDataThe broader distribution sector, encompassing retail, wholesale and motor trades, experienced a contraction at a reduced rate of 26% in April – an improvement on the 32% fall in March.
The sector is bracing for a consistent decline rate of 29% in May.
CBI principal economist Martin Sartorius stated: “Annual retail sales volumes fell more slowly in April, but firms remain pessimistic about the outlook due to the impact of Autumn Budget measures, persistently weak consumer sentiment, and global economic uncertainty. These themes were echoed in the wholesale sector, which reported one of the sharpest sales declines in the past four years.
“With no sales recovery on the horizon, firms across the distribution sector want to see the government use every lever available to boost business and household confidence during these challenging times.”
Orders placed by retailers on suppliers have shown signs of easing off with a slower reduction rate of 24% in April compared to 38% in March. However, expectations for May indicate a slightly faster cutback rate of 29%.
Retail stock volumes remained relatively stable in April at 21%, surpassing the long-term average of 17%.
Recent data from the Office for National Statistics has revealed that UK’s annual inflation rate as indicated by the Consumer Prices Index slowed to 2.6% for the 12 months leading up to March 2025 from the 2.8% reported in February.
