Retailers are bringing forward shipments as businesses race to avoid potential tariff increases expected in August, pushing US container imports to a record monthly high and highlighting the wider impact of trade uncertainty on global retail supply chains.
The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates forecasts that major US ports will handle 2.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July.
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That would surpass the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 and represent a 3.3% increase compared with July last year.
The rush to import goods is being driven by retailers and other importers seeking to avoid higher costs if new US tariffs are introduced next month. The move is creating an earlier-than-usual peak shipping season, with many businesses building inventories for back-to-school sales and the year-end holiday period.
Early orders reshape supply chains
Retailers are adjusting supply chain plans to reduce the financial impact of possible tariff changes. Importers are placing orders earlier than normal to secure stock before any higher duties take effect.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said the early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers prepare for “potentially higher tariffs beginning in August” while also managing wider trade uncertainty.
The report also points to disruption beyond tariff policy. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher transport costs are adding pressure to global supply chains, making inventory planning more difficult for retailers and suppliers.
Record imports expected to be short-lived
While July is forecast to set a new record, the increase is not expected to continue.
Imports are forecast to fall to 2.22 million TEU in August, down 4.5% from a year earlier. September volumes are expected to reach 1.99 million TEU, a 5.7% decline, with October and November also forecast to remain below last year’s levels.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said recent growth reflects “frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases” rather than stronger long-term demand. Once retailers have replenished inventories, container volumes are expected to ease during the remainder of the year.
Global retailers watch tariff decisions
Although the report focuses on US ports, the impact extends across international retail and manufacturing. Suppliers, logistics providers and exporters worldwide are responding to changes in US trade policy by adjusting production schedules, shipping capacity and inventory management.
For UK retailers sourcing goods from Asia and other overseas markets, the latest figures underline how quickly global supply chains can react to tariff announcements. Businesses across the retail sector continue to monitor trade policy closely as they balance stock availability against rising import costs.
The Global Port Tracker report suggests that once the current wave of early imports passes, shipping volumes are likely to return to more typical levels, provided there are no further changes to tariff policy or other major disruptions to international trade.
