The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that the five-day shopping period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday is expected to draw a record 186.9 million consumers, marking the largest turnout in the organisation’s data to date.
This surge in shopping activity underlines the growing importance of the Thanksgiving weekend shopping season for retailers, brands and supply-chain partners alike.
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Record weekend turnout and shopping channels
According to the NRF’s survey conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics of 8,000 adults between 31 October and 6 November, 58 per cent of consumers say they have already begun their holiday shopping.
The expected 186.9 million shoppers represent an increase of more than 3 million compared with last year’s figure of 183.4 million.
The primary day remains Black Friday, with about 70 per cent of respondents (roughly 130.4 million) planning to shop on that day.
Following that, Cyber Monday accounts for around 40 per cent of consumers (73.9 million) expecting to shop online.
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By GlobalDataOf the 67 million consumers anticipated to shop on the Saturday (commonly referred to as Small Business Saturday), 80 per cent cited an intention to support local businesses.
Gift-cards, payment methods and spending motivations
In the report, clothing and accessories are identified as the top planned gift category (50 per cent of consumers), followed by gift cards (43 per cent) and toys (32 per cent).
Gift-card spending is projected to reach US $29.1 billion this season, up from around US $28.6 billion last year. Consumers intend to purchase three to four gift cards on average, spending approximately US $171 each.
Regarding payment methods, debit cards remain the favoured option at 44 per cent, followed by credit cards (37 per cent) and cash (16 per cent). Digital wallets and apps are expected to be used by 59 per cent of consumers.
Charitable behaviour is also notable: around 67 per cent of consumers plan to engage in at least one giving activity during the period—such as financial donations (32 per cent) or donating items (31 per cent).
Implications for retailers and supply-chain partners
For business-to-business readers operating in retail, logistics, brand manufacturing or supply-chain services, this record forecast of weekend shopping activity underscores several strategic implications.
Firstly, the high volume of planned purchases suggests heightened pressure on fulfilment, inventory planning and customer-service operations. Retailers must balance demand across in-store, online and omnichannel channels, given that consumers continue to reference online search (41 per cent) and peer/family recommendations (35 per cent) for inspiration.
Secondly, gift-card and digital-wallet trends signal the continuing shift in payment behaviour, implying that retailers and service providers should ensure their point-of-sale systems and e-commerce platforms are optimised for modern payment methods and consumer expectations of convenience.
Thirdly, the strong intention among consumers to support local businesses during Small Business Saturday highlights a diversification of shopping behaviour which may affect segmentation strategies, store footfall predictions and supply-chain mapping for smaller-scale retailers.
Finally, while this surge sets a new benchmark for weekend shopping, the NRF forecast for holiday sales across November and December projects growth of between 3.7 per cent and 4.2 per cent over 2024, with total spending expected to exceed US $1 trillion for the first time.
For B2B stakeholders, aligning operations and promotional calendars to this broader holiday uptick will be as important as managing the peak weekend itself.
In short, the anticipated record shopping weekend offers a critical early-indicator for suppliers, logistics providers and retail service companies to align their strategies with consumer behaviour, channel mix and payment trends.
