US retail sales recorded another monthly increase in February, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, showing continued growth in consumer spending despite economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions.
Data released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, rose 0.28% month on month in February and 6.24% year on year. Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, increased 0.27% month on month and 5.87% year on year.
Discover B2B Marketing That Performs
Combine business intelligence and editorial excellence to reach engaged professionals across 36 leading media platforms.
The results mark the fifth consecutive monthly increase in retail sales, highlighting steady demand across several retail categories.
The NRF said sales growth continued despite winter weather and growing global economic concerns, including instability linked to escalating US-Israel military strikes on Iran and broader Middle East tensions affecting energy markets and inflation expectations.
Retail sales growth continues across most sectors
Retail spending rose year on year in eight of nine tracked sectors in February, reflecting broad consumer demand across essential and discretionary goods. Categories with the strongest annual growth included clothing stores, health and personal care retailers and general merchandise outlets.
Monthly results were more mixed, with five sectors posting gains compared with January.
US Tariffs are shifting - will you react or anticipate?
Don’t let policy changes catch you off guard. Stay proactive with real-time data and expert analysis.
By GlobalDataThe NRF Retail Monitor tracks spending using anonymised credit and debit card transaction data rather than surveys, providing a near-real-time view of retail activity and avoiding later statistical revisions.
For the first two months of the year, total retail sales increased 6.04% year on year, while core retail sales rose 5.76%, indicating stable momentum in the US retail sector entering the spring trading period.
Retail activity remains a key indicator for the wider US economy because consumer spending accounts for a large share of economic output.
Geopolitical tensions and inflation risks shape retail outlook
Despite the positive February figures, retailers are closely monitoring external risks that could affect consumer spending during the remainder of the year.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East, including ongoing US-Israel military strikes on Iran, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to energy markets and shipping routes.
Rising fuel prices and inflation expectations linked to the conflict are already influencing consumer sentiment in several markets.
Higher transport and logistics costs could affect retail pricing if oil prices rise further. Retailers are therefore focusing on cost management and pricing strategies to maintain demand from price-sensitive consumers.
Economic indicators also show that global consumer confidence remains fragile. Analysts note that geopolitical risks and energy price volatility could influence purchasing behaviour in the coming months.
Retail data signals resilient consumer spending
The February results suggest that US consumers continue to spend despite economic headwinds, supported by steady employment levels and wage growth.
Industry analysts often track the NRF Retail Monitor alongside official US retail sales data because it relies on real transaction data rather than surveys. This provides an early signal of trends in consumer spending and retail demand.
While the latest figures point to resilience in the US retail sector, retailers remain cautious about the outlook.
Energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures are expected to shape consumer behaviour and retail sales performance through 2026.
