US retailers are monitoring rising tensions involving Iran as businesses assess the potential impact on global supply chains and import volumes. While the immediate effect on US-bound cargo remains unclear, industry groups say geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainty are already shaping expectations for retail imports in 2026.
New data from the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, produced with Hackett Associates, indicates that imports through major US container ports are likely to remain below last year’s levels in the first half of 2026.
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Analysts say it is still too early to measure whether the Iran conflict will disrupt retail supply chains, though the situation is being closely watched across the industry.
Import volumes expected to decline
Retail import volumes are projected to fall slightly during the first six months of 2026, reflecting ongoing trade policy uncertainty and shifts in consumer demand.
According to the Global Port Tracker report, the first half of the year is expected to reach 12.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), down 2.5% compared with the same period in 2025.
US container ports handled about 2.08 million TEU in January, an increase from the previous month but 6.4% lower than the same month last year. Forecasts suggest imports will fluctuate through mid-2026, with year-on-year declines expected during several months of the period.
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By GlobalDataRetail analysts attribute the weaker outlook mainly to policy uncertainty around tariffs and trade investigations. Businesses importing consumer goods, apparel and electronics often plan shipments months in advance, meaning unpredictable policy changes can affect purchasing decisions and shipping schedules.
Iran conflict adds supply chain risk
Although the conflict involving Iran has not yet shown measurable effects on US container imports, industry experts warn that prolonged geopolitical instability could influence supply chain costs and retail demand.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the direct effect on US-bound container cargo is likely to be limited in the short term because relatively little containerised freight shipped to the United States originates from the region.
However, wider economic effects could emerge if the situation escalates. Rising oil and fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions may push up logistics costs and contribute to inflation, which can reduce consumer spending and eventually lower retail import volumes.
Global logistics networks are also sensitive to disruption in the Gulf region, which sits along major trade routes connecting Asia, Europe and North America. Supply chain analysts say retailers are therefore monitoring the situation closely as part of broader risk management strategies.
Trade policy uncertainty continues
Beyond geopolitical risks, retailers face ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy and tariffs. The US Supreme Court recently ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the government to introduce a temporary tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
The measure introduced a 10% tariff for 150 days, with officials indicating the rate could increase. The administration is also considering further investigations that could lead to additional trade restrictions.
Retail industry representatives say such policy changes complicate long-term supply chain planning. Tariffs can increase import costs for retailers and suppliers, which may ultimately raise prices for consumers.
For now, the outlook for US retail supply chains remains uncertain.
Import forecasts suggest a modest decline in cargo volumes in early 2026, while geopolitical developments — including tensions in Iran — remain a key factor businesses are watching for potential disruption to global trade.
