Retail sales volume in the UK rose by 0.9% in June 2025, recovering from a steep 2.8% fall in May but still falling short of economists’ expectations of a 1.2% rise.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed this rebound to England’s warmest June on record, which spurred demand for food and drink, automotive fuel and summer clothing.
Dr Kris Hamer, director of Insight at the British Retail Consortium (BRC), responded to the latest ONS Retail Sales Index, which showed retail sales up 3.5% by value and 1.8% by volume year‑on‑year.
He noted that warm, sunny weather encouraged higher spending on cooling appliances, food and drink, and social gatherings.
Hamer warned that consumer confidence declined in July, exposing sales performance to risk for the rest of the summer.
Retailers were facing around £7 billion of additional costs stemming from last year’s budget, which could force higher prices or cutbacks in investment if further taxation measures are introduced.
Context: seasonal spending and broader economic backdrop
Retailers across food stores, non‑store (online) outlets and automotive fuel segments recorded gains. Online spending reached its highest level since February 2022, with fuel sales up 2.8%.
In contrast, household goods and second‑hand retailers saw slight declines, attributed to reduced footfall.
Despite the mid‑year bounce, overall retail sales remain below pre‑pandemic volumes, and quarterly growth has weakened. Inflation climbed to 3.6% in June, notably driven by food prices, further tightening household budgets.
Growth supported by weather and live events
According to multiple analysts, the warm weather combined with a packed live events calendar—such as Wimbledon and major concerts—helped spur extra retail activity around hospitality and leisure sectors.
Barbecues, drinks and event-related outfits supported sales in supermarkets and department stores, while department store sales rose by around 2.1%.
Consumer sentiment and what lies ahead
While June brought a temporary uplift in retail sales, consumer sentiment turned sour in July, as confidence slipped and households prepared for potential tax increases in the autumn Budget.
With £7 billion in budget-driven cost pressures hitting retailers, concerns are mounting over pricing, investment and jobs in the coming months.
Analysis of retail trends and risks
- weather-driven boost – the record high temperatures prompted impulsive food, drink and fuel purchases along with demand for cooling devices.
- online spending rebound – non-store retail volumes rose 1.7% in June, the strongest since early 2022. Fuel and hospitality segments saw double‑digit growth.
- economic fragility ahead – a sharp fall in confidence during July compounded by rising inflation and looming fiscal policy risks places the rest of summer trading under pressure.
With cost-of-living and inflation concerns still strong, and uncertainty around taxation and spending entering the autumn, analysts say retailers can expect subdued consumer demand and tight margins in the weeks ahead.
