UK retail sales rose 2.3% year on year in September (five weeks to 4 October 2025), outpacing the 12-month average of 2.1% and the 2.0% growth recorded in September 2024.

The figures suggest cautious momentum ahead of the “golden quarter” as shoppers weigh the Autumn Budget and the ongoing cost of living pressures. Retailers reported that milder weather delayed demand for autumn and winter clothing, while interest in new smartphones supported electricals.

The British Retail Consortium said spending grew more slowly than in recent months as households faced higher bills and Budget uncertainty.

Food price inflation lifts grocery takings as non-food lags

Food sales increased 4.3% year on year, above the 12-month average of 3.4% and stronger than the 2.3% rise a year earlier.

Industry participants said much of the uplift reflected food price inflation rather than higher volumes, with household budgets still under strain.

Non-food sales grew 0.7% year on year, below the 12-month average of 0.9% and down on the 1.7% rise in September 2024, indicating selective spending on discretionary items.

In-store steadier, online share inches up

In-store non-food sales rose 0.5% year on year in September, better than their 12-month average of 0.4%. Online non-food sales increased 1.0% year on year, lagging the 12-month average of 1.8% and the 3.4% growth seen in September 2024.

The online penetration rate for non-food edged up to 37.6%, from 37.2% a year earlier, and sat above the 12-month average of 37%.

Retailers cited targeted purchases—particularly household goods and newly launched mobile phones—as consumers continued to seek value and prioritise essential outlays.

Budget and business rates uncertainty clouds golden quarter

With the Autumn Budget moving into view, UK consumer confidence remains fragile and Christmas spending plans are under review.

Retail leaders warned that rising inflation and the prospect of tax changes are weighing on households, while uncertainty over business rates from April is complicating decisions on investment and hiring.

 Analysts said non-food spending is growing by just over 1% on average, underscoring the risk that retailers will need sharper promotions and carefully chosen ranges to unlock demand.

Grocery executives reported muted confidence overall—strongest among younger, higher-income London shoppers—despite early price cuts aimed at budget-conscious households.