Major US retailers and food manufacturers, including Walmart and Smithfield Foods, are preparing for a potential fall in November 2025 sales as the federal government shutdown threatens a first-time lapse in food aid, Reuters has reported.
The possible suspension of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which supports close to 42 million Americans, could create an estimated $8bn revenue shortfall for grocers in November.
Industry groups and companies warn that the disruption may also lead to lower supplier sales and reduced staff hours as beneficiaries cut back on spending.
According to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cited by Reuters, 267,000 retailers are authorised to accept SNAP benefits, receiving $96bn annually, or $8bn monthly.
Around three-quarters of this spending occurs at supermarkets and superstores.
Walmart accounts for 26.1% of total grocery spending from SNAP, according to research company Numerator.
The news agency, citing a note by research organisation Bernstein, reports that Walmart, Dollar General and Dollar Tree could see fourth-quarter sales 2025 decline by under 1% year-on-year if benefits are delayed, depending on the duration of the shutdown.
Walmart declined to comment, while Dollar General and Dollar Tree did not respond to enquiries.
Packaged food manufacturers such as Kraft Heinz, JM Smucker, General Mills and Tyson Foods may also experience a decline of a few percentage points in November sales if SNAP payments are suspended.
Smithfield Foods, US-based pork processor, has already taken possible SNAP delays into account when it raised its operating profit outlook for the fiscal year 2025.
The company noted that around 7.5% of spending in categories where it operates is linked to SNAP usage, but that the overall impact would be limited.
Executives added that Smithfield was collaborating with retailers to highlight affordable products.
According to the news agency, Kraft Heinz has sought to lower its dependence on SNAP purchases to reduce exposure to potential cuts.
Kraft Heinz CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera stated in June that the company had reduced its share of sales linked to SNAP from 20%in 2022 to 13% by mid-2024, following a drop in sales after the end of expanded pandemic-era benefits.
