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US Thanksgiving 2025 online sales forecast to climb 6% despite tariffs 

Black Friday, usually the peak day for e-commerce, is forecast to generate $78bn in global online sales and $18bn in the US. 

Shubhendu Vimal November 28 2025

Online spending in the US on Thanksgiving Day 2025 is projected to increase 6% from 2024, rising to $8.6bn, according to Salesforce data. 

It indicates that shoppers are responding to deep discounts even as tariff-related uncertainty weighs on the wider economy. 

By 2pm ET (19:00 GMT) on 27 November 2025 - Thanksgiving Day - data showed US Thanksgiving online spending had risen 5.8% year-on-year to $2.6bn. 

Thanksgiving and Black Friday mark the formal start of the holiday trading period, a key time that typically generates around one-third of many US retailers’ annual revenue and profit.  

The 2025 season opens against a backdrop of weaker consumer sentiment and volatility linked to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported products, which have pushed up costs for both retailers and shoppers. 

Salesforce figures showed global online spending had reached $13.1bn by Thanksgiving 2025, with digital sales expected to total $36bn worldwide by the end of the day.  

Black Friday, usually the peak day for e-commerce, is forecast to generate $78bn in global online sales and $18bn in the US. 

Recent earnings updates indicated that demand has been strong for discounted goods.  

Best Buy reports that discounted computers, laptops, and smartphones have been popular with holiday shoppers, while clothing retailers Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch also reported strong sales trends. 

In September, Salesforce predicted US 2025 online holiday sales between 1 November and 31 December would rise 2.1% to $288bn, following a 4% increase to $282bn in the same period a year earlier. 

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