US retail imports are set for an extended peak season, with September forecast to become the busiest month of 2026 as consumer demand remains resilient despite tariffs, inflation and higher fuel costs.
Imports through major US container ports are forecast to reach 2.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in September, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
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That would be 9.6% higher than September 2025 and slightly above July’s 2.3 million TEUs, making September the busiest import month of the year if the forecast is realised.
The figures point to continued strength in US retail imports later into the 2026 shipping season, despite higher costs and ongoing trade uncertainty.
Peak season shifts later
The September forecast marks a change from expectations only a month ago.
May’s 2.24 million TEUs had appeared likely to be the high point of 2026 after retailers accelerated shipments ahead of potential tariff increases.
Instead, import volumes have remained elevated, extending the peak into late summer and early autumn.
“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
Gold said some of the shift was linked to vessel delays caused by bad weather in China and the rerouting of some ships away from the Panama Canal amid potential drought conditions.
Consumer demand is also supporting import volumes.
“Consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices,” Gold said, adding that retailers are continuing to bring in merchandise to meet demand.
Retail demand remains resilient
US retail import volumes have remained high despite pressure from tariffs, inflation and higher fuel costs.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, described imports over the past three months as “buoyant”.
“Retail sales remain strong and cargo is moving relatively smoothly,” he said, although there have been reports of vessel delays and longer cargo transit times.
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEUs in July. That was 3.9% lower than a year earlier but 3.2% higher than in June.
Final August port figures were not yet available when the forecast was published. Global Port Tracker estimated August imports at 2.29 million TEUs, down 1.3% year on year.
September’s forecast of 2.31 million TEUs would put volumes slightly above August and mark a return to year-on-year growth.
Import growth to moderate
The September peak is not expected to continue through the final quarter.
Imports are forecast to fall to 2.11 million TEUs in October, although that would still be 1.7% above October 2025.
November is projected at 2 million TEUs, down 0.9% year on year, before volumes rise slightly to 2.03 million TEUs in December, 1.1% higher than a year earlier.
For 2026 as a whole, US imports are forecast to reach 25.7 million TEUs, up 1% from 25.4 million TEUs in 2025.
Imports in the first half of 2026 totalled 12.7 million TEUs, 1.1% higher than in the same period of 2025. January 2027 is currently forecast at 2.09 million TEUs, 1% below January 2026.
What the extended peak means
The latest figures show how the timing of the US retail import peak has shifted during 2026.
Retailers brought merchandise into the US earlier in the year ahead of potential tariff increases. However, high import levels continued through the summer, while vessel delays and shipping disruptions also affected the timing of cargo movements.
For retailers and their international suppliers, the extended peak means import activity is likely to remain elevated later into the year than earlier forecasts suggested.
Sustained volumes also have implications for shipping and logistics providers handling goods destined for the US, as they plan port, transport and warehouse capacity heading into the final quarter.
Import volumes are expected to moderate from October. However, the latest Global Port Tracker forecast suggests US retail import demand remains relatively resilient despite tariffs, inflation and higher fuel costs.
