US retail sales during the year-end holiday shopping season are forecast to rise by 4.2% year on year to US$1.013 trillion in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), a US retail trade association.
The forecast, released on 15 October, covers November and December, when Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas drive seasonal shopping activity.
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Black Friday, which falls on the day after Thanksgiving, is a major promotional event, while Cyber Monday focuses on online shopping.
The NRF expects sales growth to accelerate from the 3.1% increase recorded during the 2025 holiday season, when sales reached US$972 billion.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritise the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” said NRF president and chief executive Matthew Shay.
He said retailers were preparing to meet demand with competitive prices and products to suit different budgets.
However, the outlook points to continued pressure on household finances. NRF chief economist and executive director of research Mark Mathews said inflation, rising fuel prices and pressure on household spending would affect consumers differently across income groups.
Seasonal hiring expected to remain steady
US retailers are expected to recruit between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers for the 2026 holiday period. This compares with an estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs added during the previous year’s season.
Retailers typically recruit temporary staff to help manage increased customer demand, including activity in shops, warehouses and distribution operations. Seasonal workers can support sales, order fulfilment and other tasks during the busiest trading weeks.
Despite the expected growth in sales, the NRF said retailers were taking a measured approach to recruitment. Higher fuel prices, persistent inflation, elevated interest rates and consumer debt were among the factors contributing to caution.
The hiring forecast suggests that retailers are preparing for the holiday rush while remaining attentive to economic uncertainty and operating costs.
What the sales forecast covers
The NRF defines the holiday shopping season as 1 November to 31 December. Its forecast excludes vehicle dealers, petrol stations and restaurants to focus on core retail sales.
The estimate is based on an economic model incorporating indicators such as consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previously reported monthly retail sales.
The US$1.013 trillion figure represents forecast sales revenue, not the number or volume of goods sold. The projected 4.2% increase therefore does not mean that the quantity of products purchased will rise by the same amount.
The figures also do not represent total holiday expenditure, which can include travel, dining and other services.
The forecast points to continued growth in US holiday retail sales, but the extent of that growth will depend on consumer spending decisions during November and December.
For retailers, the challenge will be to meet seasonal demand while responding to differences in shoppers’ budgets and maintaining control over staffing and other costs.
