The new forecasts project Amazon US’ retail sales to surge by 19.9% YoY. Credit: refrina via Shutterstock.

Momentum Commerce, a digital retail consultancy, has released its latest projections for Amazon US’ retail sales in 2024.

According to its analysis, sales are expected to soar to $641.3bn, marking a significant increase of 19.9% compared to the previous year.

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The consultancy identified several top-level physical goods categories with varying growth rates.

The CDs & Vinyl segment is anticipated to experience the highest year-on-year (YoY) growth rate at 29.6%, reaching an estimated $607.5m in sales for 2024.

Conversely, categories such as Books and Video Games are projected to have slower growth rates, with estimated sales of $9.1bn (0.9% increase) and $5.6bn (2.8% increase), respectively.

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Examining subcategories

Within these top categories, Momentum Commerce’s analysis reveals interesting insights into subcategory growth.

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For instance, Janitorial & Sanitation Supplies is predicted to see a remarkable 176% YoY increase, reaching $1.6bn in sales.

While Grocery & Gourmet Foods is expected to grow by 8.9% overall, Beverages is forecast to achieve a 27.3% growth rate, reaching $9bn in sales.

This surge in beverage sales is expected to capture 45% of total Grocery & Gourmet Foods revenue on Amazon US, up from 38.3% in the previous year.

Stability in certain categories

Despite fluctuations in other areas, Women’s Jewelry is projected to remain stable with sales of $3.7bn in 2024, just 0.6% lower than in 2023.

Andrew Waber, director of Market Research at Momentum Commerce, commented on the findings, noting that the growth in Amazon US retail is primarily driven by sales in consumer-packaged goods categories, rather than luxury, apparel, or electronics.

Momentum Commerce has made its forecast data accessible through the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard, providing monthly sales forecasts across hundreds of Amazon categories until the end of 2024.

This tool aims to assist brands in planning their growth strategies on the platform.

The forecasts provided are based on Momentum Commerce’s proprietary analysis and modelling, incorporating various sources of Amazon US retail revenue data.

The company regularly updates its data and models to reflect changes in seasonality and observed revenue.

With Amazon US retail sales expected to reach new heights in 2024, notes the researcher, businesses can leverage these insights to adapt their strategies and navigate the evolving landscape of online retail.