Online retail growth is set for an economic rebound to pre-pandemic levels. Credit: HJBC via Shutterstock.

Forrester, the global research and advisory company, has released its latest report predicting a positive outlook for the retail markets of five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK).

The forecast, covering the period of 2023 to 2028, suggests a notable increase in total retail sales from €2.3tn (as of today $2.5tn) to €2.7tn at a 2.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Forrester points to post-pandemic consumer behaviours, global supply chain challenges, and economic weaknesses as key factors influencing the European retail landscape.

Despite these challenges, offline retail growth surpassed online retail growth in 2022 and has continued into 2023.

The report highlights that the surge in in-store shopping is attributed to factors such as increased consumer footfall and an evolving retail landscape.

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Online retail poised for rebound

However, the fundamental drivers of online retail such as diverse product offerings, 24/7 availability, and competitive pricing, remain robust. Forrester anticipates a rebound in online retail sales growth to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and beyond.

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The report also projects a significant uptick in combined online retail sales across the five European countries, rising from €372bn in 2023 to €579bn in 2028, representing a five-year CAGR of 9.2%.

Online sales are expected to constitute 22% of total retail sales in these markets, up from 16% in 2023.

Country-specific highlights

Germany

  • Total retail sales in Germany are forecasted to reach €680bn by 2028, marking an increase from €585bn in 2023.
  • Online retail sales are expected to represent 22% of total retail sales by 2028, compared to 16% in 2023.
  • Offline retail sales in Germany will reach €527bn in 2028, up from €490bn in 2023.

United Kingdom

  • Total UK retail sales are projected to reach £544bn by 2028, up from £459bn in 2023.
  • Online retail penetration in the UK is set to rise to 32% of total retail sales by 2028, up from 27% in 2023.
  • Offline retail sales in the UK will reach £368bn in 2028, compared to £336bn in 2023.

France

  • Total retail sales in France are expected to reach €610bn in 2028, up from €521bn in 2023.
  • Online retail sales in France are projected to represent 18% of total retail sales by 2028, an increase from 14% in 2023.
  • Offline retail sales in France will reach €499bn in 2028, compared to €448bn in 2023.