US retailers are keeping a tight grip on inventory despite a short-term rise in import cargo, with new forecasts suggesting shipments will fall below last year’s levels through much of the second half of 2026.
The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates expects import volumes at major US container ports to increase in June compared with a year earlier. The gain, however, reflects an unusually weak comparison with June 2025, when imports fell sharply after new tariffs disrupted global supply chains.
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Industry analysts say retailers remain cautious as inflation, softer consumer demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the outlook.
Retailers avoid building excess stock
Many retailers are choosing not to replenish inventories aggressively ahead of the traditional peak shipping season.
Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the increase expected in May and June is “only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025.”
“The overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue,” he said, pointing to higher inflation, weaker consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said retailers have so far resisted large-scale restocking despite seasonal demand.
“Forward demand is weakening,” he said, adding that stalled inventory rebuilding and geopolitical tensions are creating an increasingly uncertain business environment.
Import rebound expected to be brief
US ports handled 2.16 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in March, the latest month with final data available. Volumes were 0.6% higher than a year earlier and rose 13.6% from February after Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia temporarily reduced shipping activity.
Imports are estimated at 2.13 million TEU for April before rising to 2.17 million TEU in May and 2.13 million TEU in June.
The improvement is expected to be short-lived. Import cargo is forecast to fall 7.8% year on year in July, followed by declines of 5.5% in August and 1.3% in September. Overall, import volumes for the first half of 2026 are expected to be only 0.5% higher than the same period last year.
Supply chains remain under pressure
The report highlights how retailers continue to balance inventory costs against uncertain consumer demand.
Although supply chain disruption has eased compared with recent years, businesses remain cautious as tariff policies, inflation and global political tensions continue to affect sourcing decisions and purchasing plans.
Global Port Tracker monitors container imports through the largest US container gateways, providing an early indication of retail supply chain activity and import demand.
The latest forecast suggests retailers are likely to maintain conservative inventory strategies until economic conditions become more predictable.
