UK consumer confidence remains deeply negative, with the latest British Retail Consortium (BRC)-Opinium data showing no improvement in economic sentiment despite a modest rise in expected retail spending.
The figures, based on fieldwork conducted between 7 and 10 April 2026, highlight continued pressure on household finances and a growing reliance on essential purchases such as food.
Expectations for the state of the UK economy held at -53 in April, matching March’s figure and remaining the lowest level recorded. At the same time, consumers reported a further decline in their personal financial outlook, which fell to -21 from -17, also a record low.
Spending shifts to essentials
Despite weak confidence, consumers expect to increase their retail spending slightly over the next three months, with the index rising to +5 in April from +2 in March. Overall spending expectations also edged up to +15.
This increase is largely concentrated in grocery spending. As Helen Dickinson explained, “expected retail spending rose, but this was driven entirely by grocery spend.” She added that “most consumers [are] expecting to rein in spending in other areas.”
The data points to a continued shift towards essential categories, with discretionary retail segments likely to face subdued demand in the near term.
Financial pressure intensifies
Household financial sentiment continues to deteriorate, reflecting persistent cost pressures. Expectations for personal savings remained negative at -8, unchanged from March, indicating limited capacity for households to build financial resilience.
Dickinson noted that external factors are shaping consumer outlook. “The Middle East conflict continues to stoke consumer anxiety around inflation and the cost of living,” she said. Households are “expecting to see their pay packets squeezed by rising petrol, domestic energy, and food prices.”
This combination of geopolitical uncertainty and domestic inflation concerns is reinforcing cautious consumer behaviour across the UK retail market.
Policy and cost pressures mount
Retailers are also facing rising operational challenges, which could feed into consumer prices. Businesses are dealing with higher energy costs alongside increasing regulatory demands.
“The longer volatility drags on, the more uncertainty it creates in the economy,” Dickinson said. She pointed to “the growing burden of domestic policy pressures,” including packaging taxes and upcoming employment and health regulations.
The BRC has called for early government intervention to mitigate further cost increases. “Taking early, decisive action would help shield consumers from a spike in the cost of living they simply can’t afford,” Dickinson said.
For the global retail sector, the UK data underscores a familiar pattern: weak consumer confidence paired with resilient demand for essentials.
While headline spending may show modest growth, underlying sentiment suggests a constrained and highly price-sensitive consumer environment in the months ahead.
