Retail sales in April showed a marked increase, with consumers advancing their purchases to avoid higher prices expected to come with tariffs, according to the latest data from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions.

This surge in spending comes despite economic uncertainty driven by tariff-related concerns.

Spending trends influenced by tariff expectations

Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF), stated that spending continued to rise in April, with many consumers accelerating their buying behaviour in anticipation of higher prices.

The NRF highlighted that despite some dip in consumer confidence, the fundamentals for consumer spending remained strong, underpinned by low unemployment rates, steady income growth, and solid household finances.

Consumers are evidently motivated to make purchases now, fearing potential price hikes or shortages when tariffs eventually take effect.

In terms of total retail sales, which exclude automobiles and gasoline, figures rose 0.72% seasonally adjusted on a month-over-month basis and 6.76% unadjusted year-over-year in April.

This follows a more modest increase in March of 0.6% month-over-month and 4.75% year-over-year. Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants, automobile dealers, and gasoline stations, grew 0.9% month over month and 7.11% year over year in April.

Sector-specific performance in April

Sales growth in April was evident across most retail sectors, with notable increases in digital products, electronics, and grocery stores.

The digital products category saw a significant rise, with sales up 0.62% month over month and an impressive 27.67% year over year. Electronics and appliance stores experienced a 2.8% monthly increase and a 10.5% year-on-year rise.

Meanwhile, grocery and beverage stores saw a 0.59% monthly increase and a 9.51% rise compared to April 2024.

Sporting goods, hobby, music, and bookstores also enjoyed solid growth, increasing by 0.81% month over month and 9.19% year over year. Health and personal care stores recorded a 1.43% rise month over month and an 8.51% increase year over year.

A slight decline was observed in some categories, such as general merchandise stores, which were down by 0.02% month over month, although they still saw a 6.67% rise year over year. In contrast, building and garden supply stores experienced a 2.77% increase month over month but a 2.1% decrease year over year.

Tariff concerns and their impact on future spending

While April’s retail sales figures are encouraging, analysts suggest that ongoing tariff concerns could continue to shape consumer behaviour in the coming months.

Many consumers appear to be adjusting their spending patterns to stay ahead of potential price increases, a trend that may persist as the impact of tariffs becomes clearer.

Retailers will need to navigate this shifting landscape as economic uncertainty lingers and consumer priorities evolve in response to changing costs.

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