Retail sales in the United States rose modestly in June, reflecting growing uncertainty among consumers over potential new tariffs and persistent economic pressures.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, overall sales increased by just 0.05% from May and 1.46% compared with the same month last year.
The report, developed by the National Retail Federation and CNBC, tracks real-time data across multiple retail categories. June’s figures point to a continued slowdown in consumer spending as shoppers weigh the impact of inflation and possible trade disruptions.
Modest growth in core retail categories
Core retail sales—which exclude fuel, food services, vehicles, and other non-core categories—rose 0.09% from the previous month and 2.37% year-over-year.
However, this growth was weaker than in previous months. Sales in general merchandise, apparel, and electronics all showed either minimal increases or outright declines.
“While consumers are still spending, they are doing so at a more cautious pace,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. He noted that spending behaviour reflects current anxieties around tariffs and overall price sensitivity.
Online and other non-store sales increased by 0.49% month-over-month and 17.92% year-over-year, highlighting a continued shift toward e-commerce. Grocery and beverage stores also saw an uptick in June, with a 0.27% monthly rise and a 2.55% annual increase.
Tariff uncertainty impacts consumer confidence
The slowdown in spending appears tied to rising concerns about potential new tariffs, particularly on imports from China.
The NRF has warned that additional trade restrictions could increase prices for everyday consumer goods, prompting more cautious household budgets.
Retailers are already signalling the potential impact of tariffs on back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. Kleinhenz said uncertainty around trade policy is weighing on both retailers and consumers, leading many to postpone discretionary purchases.
Consumer sentiment has also been affected by interest rates and broader economic indicators. Although inflation has slowed compared to its peak, it remains a key factor influencing shopping patterns.
Sector-by-sector performance uneven
The data revealed mixed results across retail sectors. Health and personal care sales declined 0.21% in June but were up 5.78% from last year.
Clothing and accessories dropped 0.16% month-over-month and 1.32% year-over-year, suggesting consumers may be holding off on non-essential purchases.
Furniture and home furnishings fell by 1.12% on a monthly basis and by 4.67% annually, one of the steepest declines recorded. In contrast, sporting goods and hobby stores posted modest growth of 0.09% in June and 0.71% over the year.
The NRF Retail Monitor differs from the US Census Bureau’s retail sales report by using anonymised credit and debit card data to provide a more immediate snapshot of consumer activity.
The Census Bureau is scheduled to release its June retail data on 16 July.
As trade tensions continue and inflationary pressures persist, the outlook for retail spending remains cautious heading into the second half of the year.
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