US retail sales are set for a seasonal lift as Mother’s Day spending is forecast to reach a record $38bn, according to new data from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The figure highlights the growing role of key retail holidays in driving consumer demand across categories such as gifts, dining and experiences.
The NRF said consumer spending for Mother’s Day continues to rise despite broader economic pressures, underlining the event’s importance for retailers targeting mid-year sales growth.
Strong consumer intent
The latest NRF survey indicates that a large majority of US consumers plan to celebrate Mother’s Day, maintaining consistent participation levels year on year. Average spending per person is also expected to remain high, reflecting stable consumer intent.
An NRF spokesperson noted that “Mother’s Day is an important holiday for many consumers,” adding that it remains “a key moment for retailers” across sectors.
The data suggests that even as households manage budgets carefully, they continue to prioritise spending on family-focused occasions.
Gifting remains central to the holiday. Popular categories include flowers, greeting cards, special outings and jewellery. Consumers are also allocating more budget to experiences, such as meals and activities, which continue to gain share within overall retail spending trends.
Retail sectors see broad gains
The projected $38bn in Mother’s Day spending is expected to support a wide range of retail segments. Traditional categories such as florists and confectionery retailers will benefit, while restaurants and service providers are also set to see increased demand.
Online and in-store channels are both expected to play a role. E-commerce remains a significant driver, particularly for last-minute purchases and personalised gifts.
Physical retail, however, continues to capture strong footfall in categories where immediacy and experience matter.
The NRF highlighted that spending is spread across income groups, with consumers adjusting purchase choices rather than opting out entirely. “Even in uncertain times, consumers are finding ways to celebrate,” the organisation said, pointing to the resilience of seasonal retail demand.
Seasonal events drive retail growth
Mother’s Day is one of several calendar events that shape US retail sales patterns. Alongside holidays such as Christmas and Valentine’s Day, it provides a predictable spike in consumer activity.
For retailers, the period offers an opportunity to manage inventory, refine pricing strategies and engage customers across channels.
Analysts note that these seasonal peaks can help offset slower periods and contribute to overall annual performance.
The NRF data reinforces the role of event-driven spending in the wider US retail market. With consumers continuing to prioritise meaningful occasions, Mother’s Day remains a reliable contributor to retail growth, even as economic conditions evolve.
