Retail crime in the US is changing. While retailers report that shoplifting is becoming less of a concern, they are facing a growing wave of fraud that is harder to detect and can affect stores, ecommerce operations and supply chains alike, according to a new study from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The findings suggest that organised retail crime is evolving rather than disappearing. Criminal groups are increasingly combining traditional theft with digital fraud, phone scams, cargo theft and other schemes that exploit weaknesses across the retail business.
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The shift offers a warning for retailers worldwide as fraud becomes more sophisticated and increasingly crosses borders.
Fraud becomes the bigger challenge
The NRF study found that many US retailers are seeing fraud replace shoplifting as the fastest-growing retail crime threat. Instead of relying mainly on stealing goods from stores, organised criminal groups are widening their activities to include ecommerce fraud, account fraud, phone scams and supply chain crime.
According to the research, 70% of retailers reported an increase in phone scams linked to organised retail crime. More than half also saw growth in digital and ecommerce fraud (55%), while 50% reported more cargo and supply chain theft.
Shoplifting and merchandise theft remained a concern, with 52% reporting an increase, but the broader trend points to criminals using multiple methods to target retailers.
Caroline Reppert, NRF vice-president of artificial intelligence and technology policy, said: “Retail fraud has evolved.” She added that it is now “sophisticated, technology-driven” and affects “different teams across business operations”.
Crime crosses physical and digital channels
The findings reflect a wider change in organised retail crime. Criminal networks are no longer focused solely on stealing products from shop shelves. Instead, they are exploiting online shopping, digital payments, customer accounts and logistics networks alongside physical stores.
The study also highlights the international nature of the threat.
Around two-thirds of retailers surveyed said they had experienced theft linked to transnational organised retail crime groups during the past year, underlining how retail fraud increasingly operates across national borders.
For international retailers, the findings reinforce the need to view fraud as an enterprise-wide risk rather than simply a store security issue. As ecommerce expands and supply chains become more connected, criminals can exploit weaknesses at multiple points across retail operations.
Retailers invest in broader protection
The changing threat is prompting retailers to rethink loss prevention strategies.
Rather than concentrating only on preventing shoplifting, companies are investing more heavily in security technologies, merchandise protection, store surveillance and systems designed to identify fraud across physical and digital channels.
David Johnston, NRF vice-president for asset protection and retail operations, said retailers are dealing with “theft, fraud and violence” while continuing to strengthen security measures and work more closely with law enforcement.
He also noted that organised crime groups have “expanded their scope”, placing greater pressure on already stretched retail security teams.
The report argues that stronger collaboration between retailers, technology providers and law enforcement will be essential as organised retail crime continues to evolve.
While the research focuses on the US market, the growing role of digital fraud and cross-border criminal networks highlights a challenge that is becoming increasingly relevant for retailers worldwide.
