More than half of US holiday shoppers expect economic conditions to influence their spending in 2026, driving demand for discounts, price comparisons and earlier purchases.
Affordability is shaping US consumers’ plans for the 2026 holiday shopping season, with 56% expecting economic conditions to influence their spending, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
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Among shoppers expecting the economy to affect their spending, 43% plan to look for sales more often, 31% intend to compare prices online more frequently and 29% expect to use coupons more regularly.
The findings highlight the pressure on retailers to offer value as consumers seek to manage their holiday budgets without giving up seasonal traditions.
The survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics for the NRF, also reveals how shoppers are adjusting when and where they buy, with implications for retailers’ pricing, promotional and stock management strategies.
US shoppers prioritise value
Price remains a key consideration for US holiday shoppers, many of whom are turning to discounts and price comparisons to make their budgets go further.
NRF vice-president of industry and consumer insights Allison Zeller said consumers were taking a considered approach to spending while maintaining their seasonal celebrations.
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending,” Zeller said.
For retailers, this focus on value increases the importance of competitive pricing, relevant promotions and product ranges that cater to different budgets.
Discounting, however, presents a commercial challenge. While promotions can attract price-conscious consumers, retailers must balance potential sales gains against pressure on profit margins.
Early shopping helps spread costs
The survey found that 43% of US holiday shoppers planned to start browsing and buying before November, compared with 42% in 2025.
Among early shoppers, 50% wanted to spread their spending over a longer period, while 37% cited attractive prices and promotions as a reason to start sooner.
Others prefer to wait for seasonal discounts. Among shoppers planning to begin in November or December, 46% said they expected to find the best prices and promotions during those months.
These different shopping habits extend the period in which retailers compete for holiday spending.
Retailers therefore need to attract early shoppers while maintaining stock availability and relevant offers for those who wait for the main promotional events.
Thanksgiving weekend remains important
Despite the appeal of early purchases, Thanksgiving weekend remains a key part of the US holiday retail calendar.
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents said they were likely to do most of their holiday shopping during Thanksgiving weekend, compared with 63% in 2025.
The period includes Black Friday, held the day after the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the following weekend. Cyber Monday, which falls on the subsequent Monday, is another major promotional event, particularly for online retailers.
These events are important features of the US shopping calendar, although their significance varies across international markets.
Prosper Insights & Analytics executive vice-president of strategy Phil Rist said consumers were choosing when to shop according to their individual circumstances.
“From getting an early start to waiting for major deals and promotions, consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them,” Rist said.
For retailers, the findings underline the need to coordinate early-season campaigns with promotions around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while managing stock levels and protecting margins.
Online shopping leads channel preferences
Online shopping remains the most popular planned channel for holiday purchases, with 53% of respondents expecting to shop online.
Grocery stores and discount stores followed, each cited by 43% of consumers, while 42% planned to shop at department stores.
The figures underline the continued importance of physical retail alongside e-commerce, as consumers consider different retail formats when looking for suitable products and prices.
For retailers operating across online and physical channels, consistent pricing, visible promotions and reliable product availability can help make shopping more convenient.
The ease of comparing products and prices may also influence where consumers choose to spend, particularly as household budgets come under pressure.
Gift cards top holiday wish lists
Gift cards remain the most popular item on US consumers’ holiday wish lists, with 47% of respondents saying they would like to receive one.
Clothing ranked second at 44%, followed by books and other media at 25%, and personal care or beauty products at 24%.
Gift cards give recipients flexibility over their purchases, making them an established option for holiday gifting.
For retailers, they offer another way to capture seasonal spending and may encourage recipients to return after the holiday period. Their eventual commercial value, however, depends partly on redemption and subsequent spending.
US holiday retail sales forecast to exceed $1tn
The NRF forecasts that US retail sales during November and December 2026 will grow by 4.2% year on year to $1.013tn.
The projection points to continued growth in the US holiday retail market, despite consumers’ focus on affordability.
However, the survey measures shopping intentions rather than completed purchases. Actual spending may differ as consumers respond to household financial pressures, prices and promotional offers throughout the season.
For retailers, the challenge will be to turn consumer demand into sales without relying solely on deeper discounts.
The findings suggest that competitive pricing will remain important, but product choice, availability and shopping convenience will also influence where consumers spend their holiday budgets.
Survey methodology: Prosper Insights & Analytics surveyed 8,094 US adults between 1 and 7 October 2026 on behalf of the NRF. The survey has a reported margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
