Retail spending expectations fell in September after four months of improving consumer confidence, adding to concerns for retailers ahead of the year-end trading season.
UK consumers became less confident about the economy and their own finances in September, while expectations for retail spending also weakened, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and research firm Opinium.
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The latest BRC-Opinium survey found that expectations for the UK economy over the next three months fell to -34, from -28 in August. Expectations for personal finances dropped to -15, from -9, while the measure of expected retail spending declined to +5, from +8.
These figures are sentiment scores rather than forecasts of percentage changes in spending. A fall in the score indicates weaker consumer expectations.
Retail spending becomes more cautious
The September decline ended four months of improving confidence about the economy, the BRC said.
Overall spending expectations, however, remained unchanged at +15. This suggests that consumers were not expecting to stop spending altogether, but were becoming more cautious about where they spend their money.
Expected saving also fell slightly, from -5 in August to -7 in September.
The results come as retailers enter the final months of the year, when many businesses rely on stronger consumer demand.
Weak demand adds to retail concerns
The survey follows a subdued August for UK retailers.
BRC sales figures showed total retail sales rose by 0.7% year on year in August, below the 12-month average of 1.6%. Food sales increased by 2.6%, but non-food sales fell by 0.8%.
Footfall at retail locations also declined by 1.7% from a year earlier, including a 3.1% fall on high streets.
The BRC said consumers had reduced spending on larger discretionary purchases, including furniture and household appliances, while continuing to buy smaller items such as health and beauty products.
The September survey points to continued caution among shoppers. However, consumer sentiment does not necessarily translate directly into actual sales, and the latest figures do not show that households are broadly stopping their spending.
Budget puts costs in focus
The UK’s autumn Budget will take place on 28 October 2026, according to HM Treasury.
Ahead of the Budget, the BRC is calling on the government to freeze the business rates multiplier, which helps determine property tax bills for businesses in England.
This is an industry request, not an announced government measure.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said consumer confidence had “stumbled after four months of improvement”. She also pointed to higher energy costs expected during the winter and said household bills were rising faster than shop prices.
“With the Budget looming large,” Dickinson said, consumers wanted the government to prioritise bringing down the cost of living.
She also said retailers were facing pressure from “escalating employment costs, energy bills, and business rates”.
Retailers face key trading months
The combination of weaker consumer confidence and pressure on retail operating costs comes as businesses prepare for the final-quarter trading period.
The BRC wants the government to freeze the business rates multiplier so that retailers do not face a further increase in this area.
For international retailers, suppliers and investors watching the UK market, the September survey provides another indication of cautious consumer demand heading into the year-end shopping season.
The next Budget will set out the government’s tax and spending plans and provide further detail on the business environment facing retailers in the months ahead.
