US container imports are forecast to rise by 2% in 2026 as tariff changes and consumer demand extend the peak shipping season. However, port congestion and unresolved labour negotiations continue to create uncertainty for retail supply chains.
Imports through major US container ports are expected to reach 26 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2026, up 2% from 25.4 million in 2025, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
A TEU is a standard measure of shipping container capacity, equivalent to one 20-foot container.
The forecast follows an unusually long peak shipping season, which began in the spring and continued into October as retailers brought forward shipments in response to changes in US import tariffs.
Although cargo volumes are expected to ease towards the end of the year, September was the busiest month of 2026, reflecting continued pressure on the country's freight and distribution networks.
The NRF said most merchandise intended for the Christmas shopping season had already arrived in the US, despite congestion at some ports and concerns over potential industrial action.
September records highest retail imports of 2026
Major US container ports handled 2.37 million TEUs of loaded imports in September, the latest month for which final figures are available.
This represented a 3.4% increase from August and a 12.6% rise compared with September 2025, making it the busiest month of 2026.
September was also the third-busiest month since Global Port Tracker began keeping records. Only May 2022, when imports reached 2.4 million TEUs, and July 2025, with 2.39 million TEUs, recorded higher volumes.
Jonathan Gold, NRF vice-president for supply chain and customs policy, said US ports had experienced high cargo volumes throughout the longer-than-usual peak season.
The report forecasts October imports at 2.26 million TEUs, up 9.1% year on year.
Volumes are then expected to fall to 2.05 million TEUs in November and 2.03 million TEUs in December, although both months are forecast to remain above their respective 2025 levels.
Tariff changes extend US shipping peak
Changes in US trade policy have played a significant role in extending the retail import season.
Retailers accelerated shipments during 2025 to bring goods into the country before planned tariff increases took effect.
The surge appeared to have eased in early 2026 after the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs introduced under the administration's so-called Liberation Day trade measures.
However, further tariffs introduced during the second quarter prompted another increase in imports, beginning in May and continuing through mid-October.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the new tariffs had triggered another rise in shipments after expectations of a shorter import season emerged earlier in the year.
Consumer spending also supported demand, with US households continuing to purchase goods despite rising inflation.
For international retailers and suppliers serving the US market, the figures show how changes in trade policy can affect shipment schedules, purchasing decisions and inventory planning.
Port congestion and labour uncertainty persist
The prolonged import peak has placed pressure on parts of the US logistics network, particularly ports on the West Coast.
According to the NRF, some containers have faced extended delays while awaiting transfer from ports to inland rail services, slowing the movement of merchandise.
Labour uncertainty has added to concerns at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together form the country's largest container port complex.
A potential strike was avoided in early November after International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 26, which represents watchmen at several container terminals, agreed to a short-term contract extension with the Pacific Maritime Association.
The previous agreement expired in July 2025, and negotiations have yet to produce a long-term settlement.
The temporary arrangement has been extended three times, most recently until 20 November 2026.
Although the immediate threat of industrial action has eased, the absence of a permanent agreement leaves uncertainty over future port operations.
Gold said retailers were working closely with their supply chain partners to keep merchandise moving, noting that most seasonal goods had already reached the country.
Christmas merchandise largely in place
Despite the logistics challenges, the NRF expects retailers to have most of their Christmas merchandise in place.
The extended shipping season allowed businesses to bring in much of their seasonal inventory before the traditional peak period ended.
Import volumes are expected to decline gradually during the final two months of 2026 rather than fall sharply.
November imports are forecast to increase by 1.2% year on year, followed by growth of 1.3% in December.
For retailers, attention is now shifting towards managing inventory and ensuring merchandise reaches distribution centres and stores in time for Christmas demand.
Coordination between retailers, shipping companies, port operators and inland transport providers remains important as businesses seek to minimise delays and maintain product availability.
US container imports forecast to slow in early 2027
Global Port Tracker expects import activity to weaken during the first quarter of 2027, following two years in which tariff changes encouraged retailers to bring forward shipments.
January imports are projected to reach 2.04 million TEUs, down 3% year on year.
February volumes are expected to decline by 0.5% to 1.89 million TEUs, while March imports are forecast to fall by 11.2% to 1.92 million TEUs.
For 2026 as a whole, imports are expected to total 26 million TEUs, compared with 25.4 million in 2025.
The first half of the year accounted for 12.7 million TEUs, representing a 1.1% increase compared with the same period last year.
The forecasts indicate that import growth will slow as the extended peak season ends, although future volumes remain sensitive to trade policy changes and consumer demand.
Implications for international retail supply chains
Global Port Tracker monitors container imports through major US gateways, including Los Angeles and Long Beach on the West Coast, New York and New Jersey on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
The report, produced by Hackett Associates for the NRF, tracks import volumes and provides forecasts to help assess retail supply chain activity.
The latest figures show how tariff changes, consumer demand and transport capacity have influenced merchandise shipments into the US throughout 2026.
For international retailers, manufacturers and logistics providers, the prolonged shipping peak highlights the importance of flexible sourcing, inventory planning and coordination across transport networks.
Although imports are expected to ease in early 2027, tariff uncertainty, port congestion and unresolved labour negotiations remain potential challenges for businesses supplying the US retail market.
The NRF's findings suggest that most Christmas merchandise has already arrived, but ensuring goods move efficiently from ports to stores remains a priority as the peak trading season approaches.
